The Global week-end at Copenhagen

The Global week-end at Copenhagen
(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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Thousands of people were arrested in Copenhagen on Saturday December 12, 2009 as demonstrators consisting anarchists and left-wing activists fought running street battles with police in the Danish capital while negotiations continued at the climate summit. They marched from Christiansborg Slotsplads or Castle Square,Southward to The Bella Centre.

Actually the main demonstration by the coalition of hundreds of environmental groups, human rights campaigners, climate activists, anti-capitalists and freelance protesters from many countries was mostly peaceful. In the peaceful march, a rolling sea of flags and banners swelled across the city. Most bore slogans related to global warming or urging world leaders to resolve the vast differences that still make an international treaty seems elusive as negotiations move into the second and final week.

In Saturday’s throng was 26-year-old Jemimah Maitei, dressed in traditional clothing from her native Kenya. She said she had travelled to Copenhagen to be part of a delegation representing indigenous peoples at the talks, which are overseen by U.N. She said about the impact of the climate change to her ethnic community-‘Masai’, and cited relentless droughts that had affected crops.

On a day when little progress was made in the climate talks, activists spread out on foot across the city holding banners in English reading, "There Is No Planet B," and rocking back and forth inside a long ring of fabric that constituted a human boat, complete with a sail. Many had the number 350 -- which stands for an atmospheric concentration of carbon equivalent to 350 parts per million, the more stringent climate target many scientists embrace -- sewn or printed on their hats and clothes.

Demonstrations, which unfolded in crisp temperatures under cloudless skies was not the exclusive province of climate campaigners. Groups of diverse social and political pedigree took advantage of the huge gathering to advance their agendas, too. One sign urged the overthrow of the Iranian government. Another, with the words “Earth in Need: Delete Meat,” was one of many promoting ‘vegetarianism’. People calling for a free Tibet were well represented. Another small contingent of climate skeptics and libertarians derided the United Nations summit.

A group chanted and carried banners reading “Demand Climate Justice,” “The World Wants a Real Deal" and “There is No Planet B” as they marked for miles past officers in riot gear, police dogs and the flashing lights of dozens of police vans.

Only by afternoon, when the crowd was marching southward over the canal towards the Bella Center, small bands of black-clad youths chanting anti-capitalist slogans and carrying sticks and rocks infiltrated into the peaceful crowd. These spontaneous demonstrations by bands of radical protesters resulted in police arrests.

Cobble stones were thrown through the windows of the former stock exchange building and foreign office buildings in the city even though police had resorted to large number of pre-emptive arrests under a controversial anti-hooligan law.

The fact that a lion’s share of greenhouse gases have been emitted by industrialized nations, developing countries have argued that they have a duty to help poor lands deal with the consequences of global warming, like drought, floods and tropical storms.

The demonstration when it started was very beautiful with all the colors and the music .What had begun with exuberance was seemed to simply fizzle at the end.

Many demonstrators made for the Metro trains, others decided to avoid the crush of the crowds and walk back to the city the way they came.


Suspected troublemakers were herded into a closed-off street, made to sit down and then tied up with plastic cuffs. They were then transported by buses detention locations ear marked for the purpose. As per police version, four cars were set on fire during the evening. One policeman was hurt by a stone and a Swedish man injured by a firework.

"You don't have to use that kind of violence to be heard," said Connie Hedegaard, the Danish minister presiding at the United Nations talks. She condemned rioters after welcoming the main march at a candlelit vigil outside the conference centre.

One activist group accused the police for forcing the protestors to sit on the road for hours in near-freezing temperatures. The day's main demonstration - a march involving 40,000 people - remained good natured but there remain fears that a hard-core of more violent demonstrators may still be waiting until later in the week, when President Barack Obama and other world leaders will arrive, to protest.

Inside the Bella Centre, delegates at the summit gathered around flat-screen TVs, showing both the police crackdown and the peaceful rally of environmental campaigners. There is a growing fears that the summit could degenerate into an undignified global squabbling match with poor nations accusing their rich counterparts of forging a "backroom deal" at a secret dinner.

The divide in the summit between wealthy, developing and poor nations was laid bare with news that ministers from a select group of 40 countries were dining together away from the summit venue. The meal, held behind closed doors at an undisclosed location, was viewed as a last-ditch attempt to cobble together a politically acceptable deal after a week of discussions marred by in-fighting, and "greener than thou" posturing over who is most to blame for global warming. Ministers are desperate to have a document ready when heads of state arrive for the final stages of the two-week conference on Thursday.

Leading them will be the British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who has fashioned himself as a global champion in the battle against climate change, and who is arriving ahead of other top statesmen in a bid to stamp his authority on the meeting.

But so far officials from 194 countries have failed to make any substantive agreements on even the most basic goals.

Arguments are still raging over targets and deadlines for limiting global temperature rise, as well as the extent to which rich nations should fund green projects for poor ones, and whether emerging economic superpowers like China should balance green considerations against much-needed development.

Washington and Beijing have also traded insults over whether China should fund its own green measures or receive handouts financed largely by the West.

With signs of an irreconcilable split growing between the large and powerful and the small and poor, last night's dinner, attended by countries including Britain, the US, China and India – was viewed as an attempt by mostly bigger, better-off nations to strike a deal in private.

"A lot of the deals are done in back rooms but there has to be transparency at the same time," said Keith Allott, of the World Wildlife Fund, which claims smaller nations are being left out of the process.

Ed Miliband, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, attempted to paint a brighter picture of the conference, insisting he was optimistic of a deal by the time heads of state arrived. This remains difficult in process terms because we have 100 and something leaders arriving on Thursday and we have to get to an agreement by the time they leave," he said

"The world is doing what it has never done before, which is trying to peak emissions and see them fall. It is not a done deal, it remains in the balance."

Gordon Brown plans to travel to Copenhagen on Tuesday evening, a day earlier than planned, in an attempt to help "seal the deal". Downing Street sources said the Prime Minister was expected to hold one-to-one meetings with key figures including Ban Ki-Moon, the UN Secretary-General. He will attend a formal dinner on Thursday and an all-day session on Friday before returning to Britain that night. A source said: "He remains concerned that the commitment for a deal is still short of what is required."

A productive meeting at Copenhagen is widely seen as being crucial to the credibility of the global campaign on climate change. But the first week saw slow progress. Rich and poor repeatedly clashed over the need to reduce greenhouse gases, with Africa and the small island states threatening to walk out unless the developed nations committed to deeper cuts.

Many of the exchanges were bad-tempered, souring an event that aspires to be a vehicle for better global co-operation. He Yafei, China's vice minister of foreign affairs, said he was "shocked" at US climate change negotiator Todd Stern's assertion that Beijing did not need any American money. "It's not just about the US and China, it's the whole international community," he said, insisting that climate change was historically the fault of the West. "The US is a developed country and China is part of the developing countries. To tackle global climate change we need to work together."

China's chief climate negotiator, Su Wei, told reporters Saturday that his country was simply sticking to the Bali Action Plan that negotiators agreed to in 2007, calling it "quite clear."

Ian Fry, the representative of the tiny Pacific island of Tuvalu, has also claimed that even the more vulnerable countries' intended target to restrict global warming to a rise of 1.5C will leave his island underwater because of rising sea levels.

However, the G8 and major developing economies believe it is realistically impossible to restrict temperature rises to less than 2C. They have also accused developing nations of demanding more "go green" cash than they actually need.

After seven days' negotiating there is so far only a draft agreement on the table. The framework for a possible "Copenhagen Protocol" talks about cuts for developed nations of between 25 and 45 per cent by 2020, and calls on rich nations to pay their poorer cousins to reduce their emissions. But blanks remain in what negotiators term the "square brackets" – where officials must eventually insert precise figures and dates.

There is also the question of making the agreement enforceable in law. Britain has already suggested that a further summit will be necessary in six months' time to address the issue.

Conference delegates took the day off on Sunday December 13, 2009, enjoyed sights of Copenhagen, although environment ministers and their top negotiators met informally at the Danish Foreign Ministry and at hotels around the city to reach agreeable financing terms and emissions targets under a new deal. An agreement is likely to include a green tax on the shipping industry.

Scattered protests continued on Sunday too, but climate activists in Copenhagen were largely quiet after a day of mass demonstrations resulted in nearly 1,000 arrests. Danish police had arrested about 230 people by midday Sunday, most in an illegal protest in the northern part of the city. The Bella Center, where negotiations have been going on to craft a global strategy to combat global warming was closed for the day.
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No need To Go beyond Kyoto Protocol?

No need To Go beyond Kyoto Protocol?
(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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India has opposed to any amendments of the Kyoto Protocol despite the pressure from EU for an agreement which can be more broader than the 1997 treaty putting obligations to developing nations for emission reductions.

India’s spokesperson, Vijai Sharma who is the Indian Environment Secretary made it clear to press that India focuses on heightened implementation of the convention. He rightly said” the spotlight is on existing commitments”.

There was anew proposal for adding a fresh protocol to the Kyoto protocol, knowing the fact that developing nations especially India, China, Brazil and S.Africa adhere to the a one protocol approach. It was the tiny island nation TUVALU which situates at just two meters above the sea level and prone to get swamped by raising sea levels, put forth the new proposal.

Tuvalu's representative Ian Fry requested the minister of the Copenhagen Conference, Connie Hedegaard to immediately form a contact group to consider the proposal for a new protocol that calls for vigorous action, such as binding cuts and puts less than 1.5 degree limit in warming, by developed nations and emerging economies.

President Connie Hedegaard had to suspend the work of the COP following a deadlock on the Issue with EU and Australia supporting it.

Developing nations like India, China, and oil producing states including Saudi Arabia have opposed it on the ground that there should not be any detraction from Kyoto Protocol, the treaty that imposes legally binding sanctions on industrialized nations, excluding the US. Developing nations will be suspecting that Europe's support for a new protocol is to weaken the Kyoto Protocol. Vijai Sharma had remarked that the several provisions in the new proposal are inconsistent and obviously in conflict with the convention provisions pertinent to historical responsibility and equity. He said that there are articles bracketing the Annex 1 and non-Annex countries and allows Annex 1 to abandon Kyoto, which is not the right message to give at this point of time.

The Kyoto Protocol sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries, called Annex 1 countries, for reducing greenhouse emissions to an average of 5% against 1990 levels between 2008-2012. However, Tuvalu and Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) have said here that the Copenhagen summit needs to produce a document much stronger than the Kyoto Protocol that neither puts obligations on U.S nor on developing and emerging economies!

Sweden's environment minister Andreas Carlgren told reporters, "If we were to end up with an agreement where the only legally binding part would be the Kyoto Protocol then we would not manage to achieve what is needed”.

Fry has repeatedly stated that his country do not want to "kill" the Kyoto Protocol but to make it tougher to both developed and developing nations.

A major portion of this conference is to extend the Kyoto Protocol into its second commitment period starting from 2013 where developed countries have to make cuts will be listed in Annex B, which is a top priority for India and China at this climate meet.

Liu Zhenmin, the deputy Chinese permanent representative to UN clarified that the Kyoto Protocol will not expire in 2012 and that is the reason for all nations to gather at Copenhagen!
In fact the protocol will be very much effective after 2012.

The Kyoto Protocol had given targets for developed countries to quantify their (emission) targets between 2008 until 2012. Thus the need for continuation of negotiations beyond 2012 arises. He remarked that Kyoto Protocol also has some other provisions and the other mechanisms."

In his opinion, Kyoto Protocol being a legally binding document has to continue to be effective. So there is no reason for developing nations to support the view that Copenhagen has to negotiate a fresh legally binding document to replace Kyoto protocol. It's a kind of a follow-up. It's an update, a continuation of the Kyoto process."

Climate change negotiations started over 20 years ago. The UNFCC is the first mile stone in the negotiation process and the Kyoto Protocol is the second one. The Copenhagen can be the third. Efforts for human kind to respond to climate change will not end in Copenhagen and it has to continue for ever.




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Climate Summit: Crusade Against Un-cooked Danish Draft Report and ‘Climategate’

Climate Summit:
Crusade Against Un-cooked Danish Draft Report and ‘Climategate’

(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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The G-77 group of countries and China on Wednesday December 09, 2009 blasted a Danish draft proposal that threatens the success of reaching an agreement on climate change in the ongoing Copenhagen summit.

Sudan's Lumumba Stanislas Dia Ping, who heads the G-77 group stated that draft text, which was leaked, is a "serious and unfortunate development. It is a major violation that threatens the success of the Copenhagen negotiating process,". The G-77 and China called on the Prime Minister of Denmark, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, and protested for releasing a pre-summit draft, an uncooked report and deviate from such further attempts planned for. The group reaffirmed that it will not walk out of Copenhagen and will indefatigably work towards an unbiased outcome till the last minutes of the conference.

The G77 held the host of the Copenhagen negotiations, Rasmussen personally responsible for the production of the document, stating that it is "very unfortunate that the man trusted to lead the process will fail”

UN climate change chief Yvo de Boer said this draft was on a ‘decision paper’ put forward by Danish Prime Minister. He said "This was an informal paper ahead of the conference given to a number of people for the purposes of consultations. The only formal texts in the UN process are the ones tabled by the Chairs of this Copenhagen conference at the behest of the Parties," he added.

G77 member states cannot afford a failure at Copenhagen wherein Negotiators from 192countries have come to hammer out a climate change treaty as the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

In the meantime, hackers had gained access to the documents of the climate research centre of UK-based East Anglia University and leaked confidential data, including thousands of emails and documents between UK and US scientists over the past 10 years which have led to accusations that scientists exaggerated the crisis.

Some of the excerpts of the e-mails posted read, "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline." Another e-mail reads: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't."

A major threat has emerged out from United States, when the Sarah Palin the 2008 Republican nominee for vice president and governor of Alaska from 2006 to 2009 refurbished criticisms against the summit with the support of these fresh rumours. His contention is that these e-mails revealed leading climate experts’ deliberately destroying records, manipulated data to "hide the decline" in global temperatures, and tried to silence their critics by preventing them from publishing in peer-reviewed journals. There were incidences which established that there existed wast differences of opinions, ideas and research observations and never had consensus within the CRU personnel! Many had strong doubts about the accuracy of estimates of temperatures from centuries ago, estimates used to back claims that more recent temperatures are rising at an alarming rate.

Sarah Palin believes that the scandal obviously calls into question the proposals being pushed in Copenhagen. He thinks that the policy should be based on sound science, not politics. He cited his experience as Governor of Alaska, when he took the stand against politicized science against which he sued the federal government over the decision to list the polar bear as an endangered species despite the fact that the polar bear population had more than doubled then. He was widely criticized and got bashed for his efforts by radical environmentalists in United States. Still he stood by my view that adding a healthy species to the endangered list under the guise of "climate change impacts" was an abuse of the Endangered Species Act. This would have irreversibly hurt both Alaska's economy and the nation's, while also reducing opportunities for responsible development.

He wanted U.S diplomats and Officials Copenhagen should remember that good environmental policymaking is about weighing real-world costs and benefits -- not pursuing a political agenda. In the meantime he asserted that he is not unaware on the global warming and the reality of changing climate. He proudly remembers his achievement as one of the first governors to create a sub-committee to deal specifically with the issue of changing weather patterns and to recommend common-sense policies to respond to the coastal erosion, thawing permafrost and retreating sea ice that affect Alaska's communities and infrastructure.

He says that while we recognize the occurrence of these natural, cyclical environmental trends, we can't say with assurance that man's activities cause weather changes. We can say, however, that any potential benefits of proposed emissions reduction policies are far outweighed by their economic costs. And those costs are real. Unlike the proposals China and India offered prior to Copenhagen which actually allow to increase emissions, President Barack Obama’s proposal calls for very serious cut of long-term carbon emissions. Meeting such targets would require Congress to pass its cap-and-tax plans, which will result in job losses and higher energy costs as admitted by the President during his campaign.

Sarah Palin commented that Americans are not hoping for the cap-and-tax plans.The public opposition mounting to stall Congress's legislation, Environmental Protection Agency bureaucrats plan to regulate carbon emission themselves doing an end run around the American people. He wanted U.S people to know on the plight of European Union, where energy prices skyrocketed after it began a cap-and-tax program. Meanwhile, Australia's Parliament recently defeated a cap-and-tax bill. Surely other nations have to follow suit, particularly as the climate e-mail scandal continues to unfold.

He attacked Obama for opting to reach Copenhagenon the final day of the summit, stating that the the deal Obama gets will be no deal for American people.He wanted the president to stay back in home by sending a message stating that the U.S cannot be apartyto fraudulent scientific practices! His advise to the U.S regime was clear, when he said “Without trustworthy science and with so much at stake, Americans should be wary about what comes out of this politicized conference. The president should boycott Copenhagen

Saudi Arabia's negotiator Mohammed Al-Sabban had stated that climate science had been "shaken" by the leaked e-mails. Reacting to this statement, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Rajendra Pachauri said "Wouldn't you expect that? Oil and politics mix very well. I'm not too sure that oil and science mixes very well." The UN Climate Change Chief noted that incident was not a source of friction at the talks. "I think the science produced by the IPCC is rock-solid."

ajendra Pachauri along with fellow scientists stood up for their colleagues allegedly involved in the 'Climategate' scandal, stating that they had been "unfairly targeted."
The persons who have worked on this report, and those who unfortunately have been victims of this terrible and illegal act, are outstanding scientists, and have contributed enormously over the 20, 21 years of the existence of the IPCC, Now they are being very unfairly targeted. The only issue that has to be dealt with as far as this occurrence is concerned is to find out who is behind it .

In his opening statement at the UN Copenhagen conference on Monday, the head of IPCC called the incident as an "illegal act" done by those who continued to deny the existence of climate change. At a news conference yesterday, Pachauri restated this position stating that the act had been timed to interfere with Copenhagen conference and called for an investigation as well.
Defending the integrity and veracity of the IPCC and its report in the strongest terms, Pachauri noted that "barring a few isolated voices, people over here are totally convinced of the solidity of the findings in the IPCC report."

The US Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change, Jonathan Pershing, had already criticised the media for blowing the controversy out of proportion and maligning scientists involved in this episode.

He remarked that the science is incredibly robust and in fact as all nations looked forward and he is worried much more about not acting urgently than will ultimately be a small blip on the history of this process.

I suspect that Republican leaders and Anti-Obama factor plays a role behind the screen at Copenhagen.

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START OF COPENHAGEN SUMMIT ....Any diminution in expectations?

START OF COPENHAGEN SUMMIT
.................... Any diminution in expectations?

( Madan Menon Thottasseri)

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There were very encouraging signals in the last few days until the global summit has commenced at Copenhagen. The opening day of the climate change conference allegedly witnessed a tempering down of expectations. A new suggestion of a three-layered outcome emerged — one that would leave contentious issues of fixing ambitious emission reduction targets on developed countries for a later date.

The suggestion, made by UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer in his opening speech this morning, urged countries to fast-track action in areas in which there were greater chances of an agreement at this conference — like adaptation or technology transfer or the mechanism that seeks to compensate countries for reducing deforestation.

The countries could then agree to keep themselves engaged on the next layer, it was suggested — that of fixing the emission targets for the developed countries, and the quantum of action to be committed by developing countries like India, China or Mexico.

This process would also include setting up of a funding mechanism to finance adaptation and mitigation in developing and least developed nations.

The third part of the suggestion comprises an agreement over the long-term vision on climate change — issues like what should the global rise in temperature be limited to by 2050, or what level should global emissions be at then, so that the planet is able to avoid catastrophic change.
De Boer likened his three-layered suggestion to as a “Christmas cake” and urged the countries to start acting on their commitments from “the day this conference ends”.

“The time for formal statements is over. The time for restating of old positions is past. The time has now come to act, and to reach out to one another. We have to begin significant and immediate action the day this conference ends,” he said, addressing the opening ceremony. “Deliver. Reach for success,” he said.

It was not immediately clear how the three-layered approach had been received by the countries. A member of India’s negotiating team said most of the countries were still hopeful of a comprehensive agreement coming out of Copenhagen. A UNFCCC official said de Boer had only been articulating the most practical approach to the problem.

It cannot be construed as a slow-start of the summit. The UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer in fact had a guided tour to the subjects to be discussed in the days to come. I think that he gave a thrust for technology transfer enabling developing and underdeveloped nations to get compensated while implementing emission reductions programmes.

I want India to take a strong pitch for SOLAR ENERGY and a shift towards renewable energy sources, from fossil fuels. India can recommend for an exclusive funds for SOLAR PROJECTS which can be implemented on a war footing at all tropical countries.

At Copenhagen, there should be concerted move to plan for utilization of the SOLAR POWER in all tropical nations and sufficient funds can earmarked to such countries as per global parameters acceptable to all nations. This will facilitate countries like India to offer subsidies to industries which come forward to install SOLAR POWER PACTS. Solar can be made mandatory for giant industries, coporate, universities, hospitals etc.here afterwards, beyond a stipulated level of power consumption.

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Climate Change Summit…. A farce?

Climate Change Summit…. A farce?

(Madan Menon Thottasseri)

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Last week witnessed a uniform media reports through-out the world shocking the international community awaiting for the Climate Change Summit. The report was that the U.N summit on Climate Changes will be a ‘farce’ as commented by the leading Scientist James Hansen , the Director of Nasa’sGoddard Institute for Space Studies, acclaimed as the grandfather of Global Warming.

In fact he was one of the first voices to raise the alarm about rising global temperatures in the early 1980s, forecasting correctly that the planet would warm in the coming decades.

He said “that the developed nations want to continue basically business as usual so they are expected to purchase indulgencies to give some small amount of money to developing countries. They do that in the form of offsets and adaptation funds” . He has planned to boycott the summit as it is seeking a counter-productive agreement to limit emissions through a “cap and trade” system.

He decried that the ‘cap and trade’ system envisaged by governments trying to “seal the deal” at Copenhagen will be ineffective in stemming carbon emissions. Under such systems, governments set limits on overall emissions and polluters trade quotas among themselves.

He dismissed the announcements of targets for greenhouse gas emissions by nations as promises will be just promises and never be kept, noting that even Japan missed its goals under the Kyoto Protocol. Next week he publishes his first book, entitled Storms of my Grandchildren, warning that “our planet, with its remarkable array of life, is in imminent danger of crashing” and declaring, “It is our last chance”.

Dr Hansen, an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute in New York, argued that the only effective way to control global warming was to institute an increasing “carbon tax”, not “cap and trade”.

“We are going to have to move beyond fossil fuels at some point. Why continue to stretch it out longer?” he said. “The only way we can do that is by putting a price on carbon emissions. The business community and the public need to understand that there will be a gradually increasing price on carbon emissions.”

He proposes that the “carbon tax” start at the equivalent of about $1 per gallon of petrol but rise in future years. The tax revenues should be returned directly to the public in the form a dividend, he said.

He added that the world must be prepared to abandon coal unless its emissions are captured and embrace a new generation of nuclear power.

Next week he publishes his first book, entitled Storms of my Grandchildren, warning that “our planet, with its remarkable array of life, is in imminent danger of crashing” and declaring, “It is our last chance”.

“The fundamental problem is that fossil fuels are the cheapest form of energy. As long as they are, they are going to be used,” he said. “It’s remarkable. They refuse to recognise and address the fundamental problem and the obvious solution.”

“If they sign on to anything like they are talking about then it’s definitely counter-productive. Any time you start down that path, it’s time wasted. We would do better taking a year time-out and figuring out a better path.”

Dr Hansen, who was a young post-doctoral student at Columbia University at the time of student unrest against the Vietnam War on the campus in the late 1960s, said that government inaction on global warming called for similar “civil resistance” now. He said: “That is the kind of activism we need.”
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Climate Change Summit and Conspiracies Against Developing nations

Climate Change Summit and Conspiracies Against Developing nations
(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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India’s accountability is in respect of the voluntary proposal of reduction in emission intensity is better than China. This is the affirmative comment of a U.S senator as if he is an authority of certifying for the intensity of the announcements in the midst of opposition for the same from various corners. He said “they have put the language on the table that’s actually stronger than China’s with respect to the accountability and the measuring” in an interview with the BBC News Channel. The senator is John Kerry who is also the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs.

Kerry is a key architect of the Kerry-Boxer bill in the US Congress that aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 83 per cent by 2050 and 20 per cent over the next decade from 2005 levels.
Kerry said the recent emission cut announcements made by China and India is a result of US President Barack Obama's personal talks with the leaders of these two countries. While Obama went to Beijing in November,2009 , the Indian Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh was in the US soon thereafter on the first State Visit of Barack Obama’s Presidency."If the President had not had the conversations that he had when he was in China, I don't think that he would have come to the point of making a decision to do 17 per cent reduction and I don't think China would have followed a day later with its decision," Kerry said.


India has decided to offer a reduction in carbon emission intensity by 20-25 per cent by 2020 over 2005 levels. Kerry also believes that Copenhagen will come out with a political agreement that will have mandatory reductions that people will agree to. "I believe it will come up with a prompt start to those reductions at the beginning of next year or so. It will also come up with a financing mechanism that will provide funding to some of the less-developed countries to assist them to be part of the solution wherein we can transfer technology," the Senator said. However, he noted that it won't be the final treaty language.


He opinioned that a political agreement to which each of the heads of state sign up to with a prompt beginning with transparency and verification will be acceptable for the time being, which can be much more easily translated into the treaty language over the course of the next months," he said.


Additionally if China and India and other developed countries have stepped up with mandatory reduction target that is going to help Senators and Congressmen to be able to say okay, now we're moving down a global path," he added.

Delegates were converging for the grand finale of two years of tough, sometimes bitter negotiations on a climate change treaty, as UN officials calculated that pledges offered in the last few weeks to reduce greenhouse gases put the world within reach of keeping global warming under control.

Yvo de Boer, the UN's top climate official, said Sunday on the eve of the 192-nation conference that despite unprecedented unity and concessions, industrial countries and emerging nations need to dig deeper. "Time is up," de Boer said. "Over the next two weeks governments have to deliver."

Finance - billions of dollars immediately and hundreds of billions of dollars annually within a decade - was emerging as the key to unblocking an agreement that would bind the global community to a sweeping plan to combat climate change. Nations also must need to commit to larger emission reductions, de Boer said.

South Africa on Sunday became the latest country to announce an emissions target. It said over the next 10 years it would reduce emissions by 34 percent from "business as usual," the level they would reach under ordinary circumstances. By 2025 that figure would peak at 42 percent, effectively leveling off and thereafter begin to decline. "This makes South Africa one of the stars of the negotiations," said the environmental group Greenpeace.


President Barack Obama's decision to attend the conclusion of the two-week conference, after phone consultations with other heads of state, was taken as a signal that an agreement was getting closer. He had originally planned for an hours-long stopover in the Danish capital this week en-route to his way to Oslo, where he will be receiving his Nobel Prize.

All countries together should emit no more than 44 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2020 to avoid the worst consequences of a warming world, the report said.

Computing the high end of all commitments publicly announced so far, the report said emissions will total some 46 billion tons annually in 2020. Emissions today are about 47 billion tons.US position as a radical change from the former administration under George W. Bush. A year ago "we had a position that this issue was not essential and not critical," he said, calling the shift staggering. "Think about how long it takes for a major country to fundamentally change its position, and this is a miraculously short period of rapid change," he said.
Delegates from several developing countries, however, were less optimistic, and were concerned that the major powers were cutting a deal behind the scenes that could betray the interests of poorer nations

Going by the latest draft proposal from host country Denmark, there is an attempt to instead talk of a date when emerging economies will peak their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. That is not acceptable to India, China or any developing country, many of whom have got together to table an alternate draft that envisages industrialised countries reducing their GHG emissions by at least 40 percent by 2020.

Setting the stage for two weeks of intense negotiations at the climate summit here, India, China and the rest of the Group of 77 countries have decided to reject attempts to sneak in proposals through the backdoor — something that countries like Australia and Denmark have tried to do in recent past — and urged for transparency in the process of negotiations.

The G-77 held a coordination meeting here this evening to decide their joint plan of action to ensure a fair and equitable outcome from Copenhagen.

Sources in India’s negotiating team told The Indian Express that developing nations expressed their discomfiture with certain countries trying to run a parallel track of negotiations by circulating a couple of draft proposals before the start of the summit with the aim of leading the course of talks in a particular direction. “The proposals have to come from within the negotiations. There have been attempts in the recent past to hijack the agenda of the Copenhagen summit and the developing countries are not ready to let that happen,” said an official. “Whatever proposals have to be made, let them be made through the official channel by submitting it at the CoP, followed by a thorough discussion on each one of them,” he said.
The reference was clearly to proposals from Australia and Denmark, which were circulated in the run-up to Copenhagen — both of which, in different ways, tried to dilute the basic tenets of the Kyoto Protocol and the UNFCCC by refusing to make the fundamental distinction between developing and developed countries in the climate debate.

The Australian proposal wanted every country — both developed and developing — to state what they wanted to do on the climate front and then agree to be legally bound by that commitment. This was a clever extension of the principle of NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) — introduced in the Bali Action Plan — to the rich world as well.
Under the clearly-enunciated principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, the developed countries have to take targeted cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions. The NAMAs apply only to the developing countries, and are not legally binding.

Just weeks ahead of the Copenhagen summit, Denmark informally circulated a proposal to participating countries wanting major emerging economies like India and China to set 2025 as the year when their emissions would peak. Additionally, it wanted every country, regardless of their current levels of emissions, to reduce their emissions by half by the year 2050.

Both these proposals have been rejected by India as unacceptable. The G-77 and China today agreed, and decided to oppose any such move during the negotiations.

The group also sought clarity on the mandate of the Heads of States meeting scheduled at the end of the conference, in which a galaxy of world leaders including Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President Barack Obama will participate. It wanted to know whether the Heads of States meeting would follow the track of the negotiations or would come up with its own agenda.

The group also reaffirmed its faith in the Kyoto Protocol and decided to resist any attempt to replace it with a new treaty. It has decided to let the Copenhagen conference know of its views on the opening day tomorrow on this issue.

Meanwhile, buoyed by the turn of the events in the last few days, with China, India and the US making encouraging announcements, UNFCCC executive secretary Yve do Boer said Copenhagen was already on its way to becoming the turning point in international response to climate change.

Never in 17 years of climate negotiations have so many different nations made so many firm pledges together,” de Boer told reporters on the eve of the anxiously-awaited climate change conference

Actually conspiracies started at CHOGM in the last month, even though it was an opportunity to discuss on the Climate Talks to be held at Copenhagen. Common wealth group consisting wealthy nations like U.K, Canada and Australia and also the planet’s tiny island states as well had a special summit on Climate ahead of the global summit at Copenhagen, and the Britain's Queen Elizabeth, who heads the group had said "On this, the eve of the U.N. Copenhagen summit on climate change, the Common Wealth has an opportunity to lead once more,"

In the last month, the spirit shown by Denmark in 60 th Anniversary of the Common Wealth Heads of Govt. Meetings(CHOGM), held at Port of Spain was mistook by country like India that they are only mustering nations for wider participation and attendance for Climate Talks. In fact Lokke Rasmussen(Danish P.M) did lot of ground work for being smart in connivance with countries like Australia. There were reports when Australian P.M- Kevin Rudd complimented Denmark and said “The clock is ticking to Copenhagen ... we believe that the political goodwill and resolve exists to secure a comprehensive agreement at Copenhagen”.

t is also to be noted in CHOGM , U.N Chief Ban Ki-Moon had stated that while the Climate Summit talk will not be resulting for an an instant approval of a detailed Treaty, the wording of the ‘Commonwealth Declaration”(at CHOGM) would be ‘operationally binding’( ie.tentatively as a uniform rule applicable to all commonwealth nations),and lead fast to a definite treaty.He had said then that the agreement to lay foundation for such a legally binding accord is now ‘within reach’

At CHOGM, Our P.M Man Mohan Singh had reiterated that there is no justification to club the developed nations with developing nations like India as historically industrial nations were responsible for the present crises on climate change affairs. It will not be acceptable to India to stunt the economic development or the considerably reduce the competitiveness by imposing legally binding emission reduction guidelines at par with that of the developed nations. With the idea that we should have to avoid any lowering of sights, he had said that we should not pre-empt the Copenhagen negotiating process and Whatever time is still available to us before the High Level segment meets from December 16, it should be used to achieve as much convergence as possible. However, if the consensus is that only a political document is feasible, then we must make certain that the post-Copenhagen process continues to work on the Bali mandate and the UNFCC continues to be the international template for global climate action.”

Now Australia tries to thrust certain stipulations as an extension of the NAMAS (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) — introduced in the Bali Action Plan, which is originally applicable only to rich and developed nations. Denmark being a host nation is expected to maintain more restraint and should not facilitate for underground lobbying.

It is evident that by announcing emission cutting announcements U.S, China and India have established that the three will rule the world for all good causes and jointly take the mantle wherein a global consensus is needed and steer all nations to come forward with positive participation. I wish that all other nations especially one of the rich nations, Australia will not resort to any idea of outsmarting by muddling of unified efforts and deliberations.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Copenhagen – A Beginning for Global Consensus

Copenhagen – A Beginning for Global Consensus

(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
___________________________________________________________________________

When India came forward to put forth a tough position and immediately became vigilant against insatiable attempts in disguise to inhibit the pace of economic development of the nation, developing nations suspect India that it will downgrade participation in Copenhagen. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been specially invited to attend the CHOGM climate change session, made an appeal to Man Mohan Singh to attend the summit. Clarifying India’s perceptions, Man Mohan Singh had said that India is willing to sign on to an ambitious global target for emission reductions or limiting temperature increase but this must be accompanied by an equitable burden sharing paradigm. Climate Change action based on the perpetuation of poverty will simply not be sustainable. Man Mohan Sing had not planned to attend the summit.

Only few days are left for the crucial Copenhagen climate talks, there was a divide between developed and developing nations while the British P.M Gorden Brown put forth a proposal at the recently held Commonwealth leaders in the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting’s (CHOGM) special session on climate change in Trinidad and Tobago to mobilize $100 billion by 2020 need for developing countries to adapt to climate change. India’s tone was set early on by the Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh.

He said . “It is unfortunate that the global discourse on climate change has become enmeshed with arguments about maintaining economic competitiveness or level-playing fields,” India is of opinion that the Climate change should not be clamped on the pretext for pursuing protectionist policies under a green label. Then it will become contrary to the UN Framework Convention (UNFC) on Climate Change and a violation of the WTO as well. India will lead a group of developing countries who share India’s stand .‘This finace is market-based and hence subject to unpredictability’. He dismissed the attempt to link climate change with arguments on maintaining economic parameters.

"Right now, there is no commitment of the magnitude that is required. ... We need close to 1 percent of global GDP, $300 billion, to address this problem," Guyana's president, Bharrat Jagdeo, who heads the economic task force of the 15-nation Caribbean Community, or Caricom, told reporters.

Developed countries in the Commonwealth led by Britain backed an initiative to establish a Copenhagen Launch Fund, starting in 2010 and building to $10 billion annually by 2012 arguing that such financing should be made available as early as next year, well before any new climate deal takes effect. The idea was backed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who also attended the Commonwealth summit as a guest. Jagdeo welcomed what he called the $10 billion offer of "interim financing."

While December first week’s U.N. talks are not expected to result in the immediate approval of a detailed climate treaty, the wording of the Commonwealth climate declaration made clear its leaders expected any deal reached in Copenhagen would be "operationally binding" and lead fast to a definitive treaty.U.N Chief Ban Ki-Moon has said an agreement to lay the foundation for such a legally binding accord is now "within reach."

The deal the United Nations is aiming for Copenhagen to offer cover for tougher emissions targets, climate financing for poorer nations and transfer of clean-energy technology. The climate treaty, expected to be adopted as a final text next year, will replace the Kyoto Protocol expiring in 2012.

Leaders of developing nations under the initiative of India, in the Commonwealth have suggested that 10 percent of the proposed $10 billion-a-year Copenhagen Launch Fund should be channeled to small island states prone to rising sea levels caused by global warming.

Nearly half of the Commonwealth's members are small island states and the group put at the forefront of the climate debate the cases of nations like the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and Tuvalu and Kiribati in the Pacific, whose existence would be threatened by swelling ocean levels.

Earlier, Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed welcomed the backing of the Commonwealth's developed countries -- Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand -- for the proposed "fast- start funding" seen as essential for any climate deal. "I believe the Commonwealth understands our predicament more than the others ... they have put concrete things on the table"

There is blooming prospects for achieving a broad political framework pact in Copenhagen next month by public promises of greenhouse gas curbs by China and the United States, the world's the world's biggest emitters.

Indian P.M reiterated that there is no justification to club the developed nations with developing nations like India as historically industrial nations were responsible for the present crises on climate change affairs. It will not be acceptable to India to stunt the economic development or the considerably reduce the competitiveness by imposing legally binding emission reduction guidelines at par with that of the developed nations.

India is cautious of measures construed to bracket developing countries like India and China as per the 2007 Bali Action Plan to implement the UNFC Convention on Climate Change. Man Mohan Singh said that the Bali Action Plan required enhanced implementation of climate change requirements like mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology. It is important that finance and technology should be made available to developing nations. Access to finance has to be concessional for developing countries and not to be dictated by market considerations.

Since U.S and China, the biggest emitters of the planet have already promised for a deal of greenhouse gas curbs, India will be put on pressure to quantify the actions that will be taken to reduce global warming. R.K.Pachauri, Chief of the Panel on Climate Change (PCC) predicted this two days back and he advocated for the importance of Prime Minister to attend the final days of the summit, at a time India’s presence and presentation will be widely acknowledged as a ‘deal maker’ and not a ‘deal breaker’. US President Barack Obama's announcement that his country would cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 17 percent by 2020, compared to 2005, and China's announcement that it would reduce the GHG-intensity of its economy by 40-45 percent by 2020, compared to 2005, and naturally put more pressure on India to come up with similar quantitative commitments.

The situation warranted India to quantify a unilateral emission cuts despite that fact that our ‘per capita’ emission is very low, thanks to our size of population! India has to prove that we are really committed to lead all developing nations without adversely affecting or compromising on its’ economic and industrial growth. Just rhetoric skills or the attitude of escapism will not help India in the issue of India’s participation in the summit of Climate Change. India is poised to surge forward in all spheres of economic development should have to gets pace and participate with the latest improvement of all righteous causes for the international community without any bias or favour.

When on Friday December 04, 2009 Just four days ahead of the Climate summit, Union Minister for Environment Jairam Ramesh announced in the Parliament that India will voluntarily reduce emission intensity by 20-25 percent by 2020, BJP blamed the UPA Govt. for making a departure from India's known stand.

Climate change was high on agenda where U.N Chief Ban Ki- Moon, French President Nicholas Sarkoyzy and Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen were also attended the 60th anniversary of the Common Wealth Heads of States(CHOGM)at Port of Spains.
Around half of Common Wealth members are island nations. Out of 53 nations, there inhibit a total of around 2 billion people, in other words around one-third of the planet’s population. The leaders of these nations met after the pledges by U,S and China to limit their greenhouse gas emissions in the midst of concerns that the Copenhagen summit could fail to agree substantial cuts.

The Commonwealth Climate Change Declaration pledged the group's backing for Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen in his efforts to secure wide attendance and commitment from world leaders at the Copenhagen climate talks.

The Copenhagen summit will help us to an opportunity to position India's long-term plan for combating global warming. Making a strong pitch for the country to shift towards renewable energy sources from fossil fuels, India must bargain at Copenhagen for large-scale resources to finance its “Solar Mission”. India being a tropical nation can consider the optimum utilization of scorching sun-light available for a period of 8 to 12 months through-out the nation at various levels, right from the peninsular tip of Kanyakumari to Northern boarder states of Rajastan and Punjab. The technology has to be made less costly prompting entrepreneurs to venture for Solar Projects at large industrial establishments, universities, Airports, Railway terminals, big hospitals, Pilgrim centres, tourist locations etc.
The Climate change threat will be real. There is drastic reduction if crop yields through-out the world, ranging from 20 – 40 percent when more and more areas of land becomes less fertile and more prone to diseases .New varieties of crops are to be developed which can get adept to extremes of weather. Otherwise the world has to encounter serious issues to feed the population. Shortage of water resources will be one of the intensive problem the world is going to face due to climate change, as commented by Kanayo F. Nwanze, President of the U.N International Fund for Agricultural Development.

There could be 200 million of climate refugees by 2050, according to a new policy paper by the International Organisation for Migration, depending on the complexity of climate displacements. Apart from the South Pacific, low-lying areas likely to be worn out first include Bangladesh and nations in the Indian Ocean, where the leader of the Maldives has begun seeking a safe heaven for his 300,000 people. Landlocked areas may also be affected; some experts call the Darfur region of Sudan, where nomads battle with villagers in a war over shrinking natural resources, the first significant conflict linked to climate change.

In the coming days, the United Nations General Assembly is expected to adopt the first resolution linking climate change to international peace and security. The hard-fought resolution, brought by 12 Pacific island states, says that climate change warrants greater attention from the United Nations as a possible source of upheaval worldwide and calls for more intense efforts to combat it. While all Pacific island states are expected to lose land, some made up entirely of atolls, like Tuvalu and Kiribati, face possible extinction.

“For the first time in history, you could actually lose countries off the face of the globe,” said Stuart Beck, the permanent representative for Palau at the United Nations. “It is a security threat to them and their populations, which will have to be relocated, which is the security threat to the places where they go, among other consequences.”

The issue has inspired intense wrangling, with some nations accusing the islanders of both exaggerating the still murky consequences of climate change and trying to expand the mandate of the Security Council by asking it to take action.

Prime Minister Mohan Singh who has not scheduled to the Climate Change summit has now decided to attend the final day of the summit. It is interesting to note that U.S President Barack Obama who had slated to be there only on December 09, 2009 en-route to Oslo for getting his Nobel Peace Prize on December 10, 2009 has amended the itinerary and he too will be at the summit only on December 18, 2009 the last day.

Arun Jaitly, the most sagacious leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, respected and liked by one and all should have restrained himself in unnecessarily slamming UPA govt. and the Union Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh who is equally respected for his vision and intelligence.

The Opposition have to delink politics from issues like India’s participation in global warming and should have come out with viable options and suggestions during all these days,right from the recently held CHOGM summit with a Special Session on Climate Change which was used to bolster a diplomatic offensive seeking wide consensus on how to fight global warming before climate talks takes place at Copenhagen, the Danish capital city. In fact this subject is being discussed by people of all walks of life, in developing countries!. The dynamic minister is to be complimented for enabling India to rise to the level of a responsible state with a concerted action plan on the issue of global warming. Of course, while presenting India’s stand in the Parliament, he remained unwavering that India that India will never agree for any legally binding emission cuts or peaking year for emissions. The Minster had unveiled a five-step action plan o achieve the reduction Plan. The measures primarily include mandatory fuel efficiency for vehicles by 2011 through legislation.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Climate Change: India's Perceptions & Stand

Climate Change: India's Perceptions & Stand

(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
______________________________________

Just four days ahead of the Climate summit, Union Minister for Environment Jairam Ramesh announced in the Parliament that India will voluntarily reduce emission intensity by 20-25 percent by 2020. The dynamic minister is to be complimented for enabling India to rise to the level of a responsible state with a concerted action plan on the issue of global warming. Of course, while presenting India’s stand in the Parliament, he remained unwavering that India will never agree for any legally binding emission cuts or peaking year for emissions. Further India’s voluntary actions will not be open to any kind of outside scrutiny. The Minster had unveiled a five-step action plan o achieve the reduction Plan. The measures primarily include mandatory fuel efficiency for vehicles by 2011 through legislation.

Commonwealth leaders in the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting’s (CHOGM) special session on climate change in Trinidad and Tobago used their summit to bolster a diplomatic offensive seeking wide consensus on how to fight global warming before December 7-18 U.N. climate talks at Copenhagen, the Danish capital city. A Climate Change declaration s pledged the group's backing for Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen in his efforts to secure wide attendance and commitment from world leaders at the Copenhagen climate talks.

Only few days are left for the crucial Copenhagen climate talks, there was a divide between developed and developing nations while the British P.M Gorden Brown put forth a proposal to mobilize $100 billion by 2020 need for developing countries to adapt to climate change. India’s tone was set early on by the Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh.

He said that unfortunately the global discourse on climate change has become enmeshed with arguments about maintaining economic competitiveness or level-playing fields. India is of opinion that the Climate change should not be clamped on the pretext for pursuing protectionist policies under a green label. Then it will become contrary to the UN Framework Convention (UNFC) on Climate Change and a violation of the WTO as well. India will have to lead a group of developing countries who share India’s stand. ‘This finance is market-based and hence subject to unpredictability’. He dismissed the attempt to link climate change with arguments on maintaining economic parameters.

Developed countries in the Commonwealth led by Britain backed an initiative to establish a Copenhagen Launch Fund, starting in 2010 and building to $10 billion annually by 2012 arguing that such financing should be made available as early as next year, well before any new climate deal takes effect. The idea was backed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who also attended the Commonwealth summit as a guest. Jagdeo welcomed what he called the $10 billion offer of "interim financing."

While December first week’s U.N. talks are not expected to result in the immediate approval of a detailed climate treaty, the wording of the Commonwealth climate declaration made clear its leaders expected any deal reached in Copenhagen would be "operationally binding" and lead fast to a definitive treaty. U.N Chief Ban Ki-Moon has said an agreement to lay the foundation for such a legally binding accord is now "within reach."

The deal the United Nations is aiming for Copenhagen to offer cover for tougher emissions targets, climate financing for poorer nations and transfer of clean-energy technology. The climate treaty, expected to be adopted as a final text next year, will replace the Kyoto Protocol expiring in 2012.

Leaders of developing nations under the initiative of India, in the Commonwealth have suggested that 10 percent of the proposed $10 billion-a-year Copenhagen Launch Fund should be channeled to small island states prone to rising sea levels caused by global warming.

Nearly half of the Commonwealth's members are small island states and the group put at the forefront of the climate debate the cases of nations like the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and Tuvalu and Kiribati in the Pacific, whose existence would be threatened by swelling ocean levels.

Earlier, Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed welcomed the backing of the Commonwealth's developed countries -- Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand -- for the proposed "fast- start funding" seen as essential for any climate deal. "I believe the Commonwealth understands our predicament more than the others ... they have put concrete things on the table"

There is blooming prospects for achieving a broad political framework pact in Copenhagen next month by public promises of greenhouse gas curbs by China and the United States, the world's the world's biggest emitters.

Indian P.M reiterated that there is no justification to club the developed nations with developing nations like India as historically industrialised nations were responsible for the present crises on climate change affairs. It will not be acceptable to India to stunt the economic development or the considerably reduce the competitiveness by imposing legally binding emission reduction guidelines at par with that of the developed nations.

India is cautious of measures construed to bracket developing countries like India and China as per the 2007 Bali Action Plan to implement the UNFC Convention on Climate Change. Man Mohan Singh said that the Bali Action Plan required enhanced implementation of climate change requirements like mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology. It is important that finance and technology should be made available to developing nations. Access to finance has to be concessional for developing countries and not to be dictated by market considerations.

When India came forward to put forth a tough position and immediately became vigilant against insatiable attempts in disguise to inhibit the pace of economic development of the nation, developing nations suspect India that it will downgrade participation in Copenhagen. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been specially invited to attend the CHOGM climate change session, made an appeal to Man Mohan Singh to attend the summit. Clarifying India’s perceptions, P.M Man Mohan Singh said: “India is willing to sign on to an ambitious global target for emission reductions or limiting temperature increase but this must be accompanied by an equitable burden sharing paradigm…Climate Change action based on the perpetuation of poverty will simply not be sustainable.” As of now Man Mohan Sing is not slated to attend the December 05- 07 summit.

India may be willing to sign on to an ambitious global target for emissions reduction, while it must be accompanied by “an equitable burden sharing paradigm.” P.M man Mohan Singh explained reiterated India’s view that the Copenhagen outcome must be “comprehensive, balanced and, above all, equitable.” At a very critical intervention during the special session on climate change at the CHOGM summit, Man Mohan Singh also pointed out that India cannot be in favour of the suggestion being pushed by developed countries that were aired at the recently held APEC conference at Singapore that if there was a failure to evolve a legally binding outcome, the Copenhagen conference could settle for a political outcome. Then the very purpose of a global consensus on the issue will be lost.
Noting that “we should avoid any lowering of sights,” the Prime Minister said India’s view will be that “we should not pre-empt the Copenhagen negotiating process. Whatever time is still available to us before the High Level segment meets from 16th December, 2009 should be used to achieve as much convergence as possible.” However, if the consensus is that only a political document is feasible, Dr. Singh said, “then we must make certain that the post-Copenhagen process continues to work on the Bali mandate and the UNFCC continues to be the international template for global climate action.”

US President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao have already expressed their intention to attend the 15th conference of signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change scheduled to kick
On 5th December,2009. As per the latest information, Obama will be there only for a day, on 9th December,2009 .

The Climate change threat will be real. There is drastic reduction if crop yields in through-out the world, ranging from 20 – 40 percent when more and more areas of land becomes less fertile and more prone to diseases .New varieties of crops are to be developed which can get adept to extremes of weather. Otherwise the world has to encounter serious issues to feed the population. Shortage of water resources will be one of the intensive problem the world is going to face due to climate change, as commented by Kanayo F. Nwanze, President of the U.N International Fund for Agricultural Development.

If not a legal agreement, at least some political agreement will be achieved at Copenhagen. Few of the frontline developing countries like India will be in a position to contribute more to mitigation and help less privileged nations in adaptation mechanisms.

Since U.S and China, the biggest emitters of the planet have already promised for a deal of greenhouse gas curbs, India will be put on pressure to quantify the actions that will be taken to reduce global warming, remarked R.K.Pachauri, Chief of the Panel on Climate Change (PCC). He had highlighted the importance of Prime Minister to attend the final days of the summit, Dec 05- 07 to at a time India’s presence and presentation will be widely acknowledged as a ‘deal maker’ and not a ‘deal breaker’.

Pachauri had predicted that US President Barack Obama's announcement that his country would cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 17 percent by 2020, compared to 2005, and China's announcement that it would reduce the GHG-intensity of its economy by 40-45 percent by 2020, compared to 2005, and would put more pressure on India to come up with similar quantitative commitments.

"The Copenhagen summit will help us to an opportunity to position India's long-term plan for combating global warming, R.K.Pachauri who is also the head of the IPCC -- the group of over 2,500 scientists worldwide that brings out the benchmark assessment reports on climate change.

Making a strong pitch for the country to shift towards renewable energy sources from fossil fuels, India must bargain at Copenhagen for large-scale resources to finance its “Solar Mission”. India being a tropical nation can consider the optimum utilization of scorching sun-light available for a period of 8 to 12 months through-out the nation at various levels, right from the peninsular tip of Kanyakumari to Northern boarder states of Rajastan and Punjab. The technology has to be made less costly prompting entrepreneurs to venture for Solar Projects at large industrial establishments, universities, Airports, Railway terminals, big hospitals, Pilgrim towns, tourist locations etc.

It is a fact that the situation warranted India to quantify a unilateral emission cuts despite that fact that our ‘per capita’ emission is very low, thanks to our size of population! India has to prove that we are really committed to lead all developing nations without adversely affecting or compromising on its’ economic and industrial growth. Just rhetoric skills or the attitude of escapism will not help India in the issue of India’s participation in the summit of Climate Change. India is poised to surge forward in all spheres of economic development should have to gets pace and participate with the latest improvement of all righteous causes for the international community without any bias or favour.

Arun Jaitly, one the most sagacious nationalist leader and the leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, respected and liked by one and all should have restrained himself in unnecessarily slamming UPA govt. and the Union Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh who is equally respected for his vision and intelligence unnecessarily.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Can Copenhagen impede Climate Changes and Existential Threats?

Can Copenhagen impede Climate Changes and Existential Threats?

(Madan Menon Thottasseri / Email: tmadan.menon@gmail.com)
_____________________________________________________________________

Climate change was high on agenda where U.N Chief Ban Ki- Moon, French President Nicholas Sarkoyzy and Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen were also attended the 60th anniversary of the Common Wealth Heads of States at Port of Spains.

Around half of Common Wealth members are island nations. Out of 53 nations, there inhibit a total of around 2 billion people, in other words around one-third of the planet’s population. The leaders of these nations met after the pledges by U,S and China to limit their greenhouse gas emissions in the midst of concerns that the Copenhagen summit could fail to agree substantial cuts.

Commonwealth leaders in the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting’s (CHOGM) special session on climate change in Trinidad and Tobago used their summit to bolster a diplomatic offensive seeking wide consensus on how to fight global warming before December 7-18 U.N. climate talks at Copenhagen, the Danish capital city.

"The clock is ticking to Copenhagen ... we believe that the political goodwill and resolve exists to secure a comprehensive agreement at Copenhagen," Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told a news conference in Port of Spain.

The Commonwealth Climate Change Declaration pledged the group's backing for Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen in his efforts to secure wide attendance and commitment from world leaders at the Copenhagen climate talks.

"We pledge our continued support to the leaders-driven process ... to deliver a comprehensive, substantial and operationally binding agreement in Copenhagen leading toward a full legally binding outcome no later than 2010," the Port of Spain declaration said.

The common wealth summit also discussed the Francophone nation Ruwanda’s re-entry into the group with the support of many member states, following the disagreements with France over events leading up to the 1994 genocide. Upon admitting the African nation the major powers in the Common Wealth can reach out to improve the lives of people there.

Only few days are left for the crucial Copenhagen climate talks, there was a divide between developed and developing nations while the British P.M Gorden Brown put forth a proposal to mobilize $100 billion by 2020 need for developing countries to adapt to climate change. India’s tone was set early on by the Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh.

He said . “It is unfortunate that the global discourse on climate change has become enmeshed with arguments about maintaining economic competitiveness or level-playing fields,” India is of opinion that the Climate change should not be clamped on the pretext for pursuing protectionist policies under a green label. Then it will become contrary to the UN Framework Convention (UNFC) on Climate Change and a violation of the WTO as well. India will lead a group of developing countries who share India’s stand .‘This finace is market-based and hence subject to unpredictability’. He dismissed the attempt to link climate change with arguments on maintaining economic parameters.

"Right now, there is no commitment of the magnitude that is required. ... We need close to 1 percent of global GDP, $300 billion, to address this problem," Guyana's president, Bharrat Jagdeo, who heads the economic task force of the 15-nation Caribbean Community, or Caricom, told reporters.

Developed countries in the Commonwealth led by Britain backed an initiative to establish a Copenhagen Launch Fund, starting in 2010 and building to $10 billion annually by 2012 arguing that such financing should be made available as early as next year, well before any new climate deal takes effect. The idea was backed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who also attended the Commonwealth summit as a guest. Jagdeo welcomed what he called the $10 billion offer of "interim financing."

While December first week’s U.N. talks are not expected to result in the immediate approval of a detailed climate treaty, the wording of the Commonwealth climate declaration made clear its leaders expected any deal reached in Copenhagen would be "operationally binding" and lead fast to a definitive treaty.U.N Chief Ban Ki-Moon has said an agreement to lay the foundation for such a legally binding accord is now "within reach."

The deal the United Nations is aiming for Copenhagen to offer cover for tougher emissions targets, climate financing for poorer nations and transfer of clean-energy technology. The climate treaty, expected to be adopted as a final text next year, will replace the Kyoto Protocol expiring in 2012.

Leaders of developing nations under the initiative of India, in the Commonwealth have suggested that 10 percent of the proposed $10 billion-a-year Copenhagen Launch Fund should be channeled to small island states prone to rising sea levels caused by global warming.

Nearly half of the Commonwealth's members are small island states and the group put at the forefront of the climate debate the cases of nations like the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and Tuvalu and Kiribati in the Pacific, whose existence would be threatened by swelling ocean levels.

Earlier, Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed welcomed the backing of the Commonwealth's developed countries -- Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand -- for the proposed "fast- start funding" seen as essential for any climate deal. "I believe the Commonwealth understands our predicament more than the others ... they have put concrete things on the table"

There is blooming prospects for achieving a broad political framework pact in Copenhagen next month by public promises of greenhouse gas curbs by China and the United States, the world's the world's biggest emitters.

Indian P.M reiterated that there is no justification to club the developed nations with developing nations like India as historically industrial nations were responsible for the present crises on climate change affairs. It will not be acceptable to India to stunt the economic development or the considerably reduce the competitiveness by imposing legally binding emission reduction guidelines at par with that of the developed nations.

India is cautious of measures construed to bracket developing countries like India and China as per the 2007 Bali Action Plan to implement the UNFC Convention on Climate Change. Man Mohan Singh said that the Bali Action Plan required enhanced implementation of climate change requirements like mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology. It is important that finance and technology should be made available to developing nations. Access to finance has to be concessional for developing countries and not to be dictated by market considerations.

When India came forward to put forth a tough position and immediately became vigilant against insatiable attempts in disguise to inhibit the pace of economic development of the nation, developing nations suspect India that it will downgrade participation in Copenhagen. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been specially invited to attend the CHOGM climate change session, made an appeal to Man Mohan Singh to attend the summit. Clarifying India’s perceptions, P.M Man Mohan Singh said: “India is willing to sign on to an ambitious global target for emission reductions or limiting temperature increase but this must be accompanied by an equitable burden sharing paradigm…Climate Change action based on the perpetuation of poverty will simply not be sustainable.” As of now Man Mohan Sing is not slated to attend the December 05- 07 summit.

India may be willing to sign on to an ambitious global target for emissions reduction, while it must be accompanied by “an equitable burden sharing paradigm.” P.M man Mohan Singh explained reiterated India’s view that the Copenhagen outcome must be “comprehensive, balanced and, above all, equitable.” At a very critical intervention during the special session on climate change at the CHOGM summit Man Mohan Singh also pointed out that India cannot be in favour of the suggestion being pushed by developed countries that were aired at the recently held APEC conference at Singapore that if there was a failure to evolve a legally binding outcome, the Copenhagen conference could settle for a political outcome. Then the very purpose of a global consensus on the issue will be lost

Noting that “we should avoid any lowering of sights,” the Prime Minister said India’s view will be that “we should not pre-empt the Copenhagen negotiating process. Whatever time is still available to us before the High Level segment meets from 16th December, 2009 should be used to achieve as much convergence as possible.” However, if the consensus is that only a political document is feasible, Dr. Singh said, “then we must make certain that the post-Copenhagen process continues to work on the Bali mandate and the UNFCC continues to be the international template for global climate action.”

US President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao have already expressed their intention to attend the 15th conference of signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change scheduled to kick
On 5th December,2009. As per the latest information, Obama will be there only for a day, on 9th December,2009.

An upbeat Rasmussen said: "A strong deal -- sealed at the leaders level -- will serve as a clear and detailed guidance for negotiators to quickly finalize a legal framework.". "Copenhagen is capable of delivering the turning point we all want ... From here on it's a matter of political will".

U.N Chief Ban – Ki Moon dismissed suggestions that the Copenhagen meeting would be merely another "talk shop". "It will be a very substantive and concrete negotiating process," he told reporters.

Asked about reservations recently expressed by Canada about whether a binding detailed climate treaty was possible, Rasmussen said: "I don't think there is any contradiction between wishful thinking and realistic thinking.

The Commonwealth group is unique with wealthy nations like Britain, Canada and Australia and also with some of the world's smallest states really launched a diplomatic push to drum up momentum for a comprehensive climate agreement. "On this, the eve of the U.N. Copenhagen summit on climate change, the Common Wealth has an opportunity to lead once more," Britain's Queen Elizabeth, who heads the group comprising mostly former British colonies, said at the summit opening.

Rasmussen said 89 heads of state and government had confirmed on attending the summit in Copenhagen. The Trinidad and Tobago's Prime Minister and the Commonwealth summit's host, Patrick Manning had already announced that he too will be ld be there too, bringing the total expected number to 90.

The common wealth summit had discussed the Francophone nation Rwanda’s re- entry into the group with the support of many member states, following the disagreements with France over events leading up to the 1994 genocide. Upon admitting the African nation the major powers in the Common Wealth can reach out to improve the lives of people there.

British Prime Minister Gorden Brown has stated that he will lobby for support for his plan to make banks pay for any future bail-out at a Commonwealth summit this week.

He also wants Commonwealth leaders meeting in Trinidad and Tobago from Friday to give a push to climate change negotiations and to send a signal that Zimbabwe could be re-admitted to the 53-nation organization if it goes through with reforms.

Gorden Brown, whose government spent billions bailing out British banks, pressed the ‘Group of 20’ economies this month to come up with a plan to make banks pay for any future rescues.

The ‘global financial transactions tax’ as opinioned by him was immediately shot down by the United States. Brown indicated he was not discouraged by the initially cool reception given to his proposal and would continue to push it at the Commonwealth meeting, which includes big economies such as Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and South Africa.

"You've got to look at this at a global level. I will be raising this with my Commonwealth partners," he said in a pre-summit briefing for reporters on Wednesday. Brown's office asked that his remarks not be published until Friday.

"You can look at an insurance scheme…… creation of resolution funds………….. asking banks to hold contingent capital. Or you can look at a transactions or a global levy of some sort," he said."I think I will find a great deal of support from a large number of countries around the world ... I think ... there will be gradually more support for the proposals I am putting forward," he said.

There could be 200 million of climate refugees by 2050, according to a new policy paper by the International Organisation for Migration, depending on the complexity of climate displacements. Apart from the South Pacific, low-lying areas likely to be worn out first include Bangladesh and nations in the Indian Ocean, where the leader of the Maldives has begun seeking a safe heaven for his 300,000 people. Landlocked areas may also be affected; some experts call the Darfur region of Sudan, where nomads battle with villagers in a war over shrinking natural resources, the first significant conflict linked to climate change.

In the coming days, the United Nations General Assembly is expected to adopt the first resolution linking climate change to international peace and security. The hard-fought resolution, brought by 12 Pacific island states, says that climate change warrants greater attention from the United Nations as a possible source of upheaval worldwide and calls for more intense efforts to combat it. While all Pacific island states are expected to lose land, some made up entirely of atolls, like Tuvalu and Kiribati, face possible extinction.

“For the first time in history, you could actually lose countries off the face of the globe,” said Stuart Beck, the permanent representative for Palau at the United Nations. “It is a security threat to them and their populations, which will have to be relocated, which is the security threat to the places where they go, among other consequences.”

The issue has inspired intense wrangling, with some nations accusing the islanders of both exaggerating the still murky consequences of climate change and trying to expand the mandate of the Security Council by asking it to take action.

“We don’t consider climate change is an issue of security that properly belongs in the Security Council; rather it is a development issue that has some security aspects,” said Maged A. Abdelaziz, the Egyptian ambassador. “It is an issue of how to prevent certain lands, or certain countries, from being flooded.”The island states are seeking a response akin to the effort against terrorism after the Sept. 11 attacks.

The Climate change threat will be real. There is drastic reduction if crop yields in through-out the world, ranging from 20 – 40 percent when more and more areas of land becomes less fertile and more prone to diseases .New varieties of crops are to be developed which can get adept to extremes of weather. Otherwise the world has to encounter serious issues to feed the population. Shortage of water resources will be one of the intensive problem the world is going to face due to climate change, as commented by Kanayo F. Nwanze, President of the U.N International Fund for Agricultural Development.

If not a legal agreement, at least some political agreement will be achieved at Copenhagen. Few of the frontline developing countries like India will be in a position to contribute more to mitigation and help less privileged nations in adaptation mechanisms.

Since U.S and China, the biggest emitters of the planet have already promised for a deal of greenhouse gas curbs, India will be put on pressure to quantify the actions that will be taken to reduce global warming, remarked R.K.Pachauri, Chief of the Panel on Climate Change (PCC). He highlighted the importance of Prime Minister to attend the final days of the summit, Dec 05- 07 to at a time India’s presence and presentation will be widely acknowledged as a deal maker and not a deal breaker.

Pachauri predicted that US President Barack Obama's announcement that his country would cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 17 percent by 2020, compared to 2005, and China's announcement that it would reduce the GHG-intensity of its economy by 40-45 percent by 2020, compared to 2005, would put more pressure on India to come up with similar quantitative commitments.

"The Copenhagen summit will help us to an opportunity to position India's long-term plan for combating global warming, R.K. Pachauri who is also the head of the IPCC -- the group of over 2,500 scientists worldwide that brings out the benchmark assessment reports on climate change.

Making a strong pitch for the country to shift towards renewable energy sources from fossil fuels, Pachauri said "India must bargain at Copenhagen for large-scale resources to finance its solar mission". India being a tropical nation can consider the optimum utilization of scorching sun-light available for a period of 6 to 10 months through-out the nation at various levels, right from the peninsular tip of Kanyakumari to Northern boarder states of Rajastan and Punjab. The technology has to be made less costly prompting entrepreneurs to venture for Solar Projects at large industrial establishments, universities, Airports, Railway terminals, big hospitals, Pilgrim centres, tourist locations etc.

He laid down three criteria for success at Copenhagen -- first, a collective emission reduction target by industrialised countries by 2020, which he said would be "good if it was 20 percent"; second, financial assistance to developing countries to cope with climate change effects; and third, transfer of green technologies cheap, perhaps through a technology fund. "If this happens there will be enormous pressure on India to make commitments," Pachauri predicted. "India should then lay its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) on the table. The cabinet has already cleared the solar mission (one of the eight missions under NAPCC), that should be a part of it."

"The NAPCC can be a binding commitment on the part of India as a back-up of other commitments (from industrialised countries) fall in place," he added. He agreed that other NAPCC mission plans had not been firmed up yet, but said if this was done, the reduction in India's GHG intensity could be worked out as an offshoot of NAPCC. "It's simple arithmetic."

While saying "no country will reveal its cards upfront" at the start of the Copenhagen summit, Pachauri repeatedly pointed out that moving towards a greener economy will be good for India in the long run.
GHG emissions -- mainly carbon dioxide -- is causing climate change, which is already reducing farm output, making droughts, floods and storms more frequent and more severe, and raising the sea-level.

The Times had reported that the U.N summit on Climate Changes will be a ‘farce’ as commented by the leading Scientist James Hansen , the Director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, acclaimed as the grandfather of Global Warming. He was one of the first voices to raise the alarm about rising global temperatures in the early 1980s, forecasting correctly that the planet would warm in the coming decades.

He said “that the developed nations want to continue basically business as usual so they are expected to purchase indulgencies to give some small amount of money to developing countries. They do that in the form of offsets and adaptation funds” . He has planned to boycott the summit as it is seeking a counter-productive agreement to limit emissions through a “cap and trade” system.

He decried that the ‘cap and trade’ system envisaged by governments trying to “seal the deal” at Copenhagen will be ineffective in stemming carbon emissions. Under such systems, governments set limits on overall emissions and polluters trade quotas among themselves.
He dismissed the announcements of targets for greenhouse gas emissions by nations as promises will be just promises and never be kept, noting that even Japan missed its goals under the Kyoto Protocol. He remarked “this is analogous to slavery faced by Abraham Lincoln or the issue of Nazism faced by Winston Churchill”. Next week he publishes his first book, entitled Storms of my Grandchildren, warning that “our planet, with its remarkable array of life, is in imminent danger of crashing” and declaring, “It is our last chance”.

Dr Hansen, an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute in New York, argued that the only effective way to control global warming was to institute an increasing “carbon tax”, not “cap and trade”. According to him, there should be no compromise, comparing the need to stand firm with Churchill’s stance against Nazis and Abraham Lincoln’s opposition to slavery.
“We are going to have to move beyond fossil fuels at some point. Why continue to stretch it out longer?” he said. “The only way we can do that is by putting a price on carbon emissions. The business community and the public need to understand that there will be a gradually increasing price on carbon emissions.”

He opinioned that the “carbon tax” starts at the equivalent of about $1 per gallon of petrol will rise in future years. The tax revenues should be returned directly to the public in the form a dividend, he said. In fact he is vehemently opposed to the carbon market scheme proposed, where permits to pollute are bought and sold!

He added that the world must be prepared to abandon coal unless its emissions are captured and embrace a new generation of nuclear power.

By the time this Article is getting ready to conclude, on 03 December, 2009 just four days ahead of the Climate summit, Union Minister for Environment Jairam Ramesh announced in The Parliament that India will voluntarily reduce emission intensity by 20-25 percent by 2020. Of course, while presenting India’s stand in the Parliament, he remained unwavering that India will never agree for any legally binding emission cuts or peaking year for emissions. Further India’s voluntary actions will not be open to any kind of outside scrutiny. The Minster had unveiled a five-step action plan o achieve the reduction Plan. The measures primarily include mandatory fuel efficiency for vehicles by 2011 through legislation.

The Times had reported that the U.N summit on Climate Changes will be a ‘farce’ as commented by the leading Scientist James Hansen , the Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, acclaimed as the grandfather of Global Warming. He was one of the first voices to raise the alarm about rising global temperatures in the early 1980s, forecasting correctly that the planet would warm in the coming decades.

He said “that the developed nations want to continue basically business as usual so they are expected to purchase indulgencies to give some small amount of money to developing countries. They do that in the form of offsets and adaptation funds” . He has planned to boycott the summit as it is seeking a counter-productive agreement to limit emissions through a “cap and trade” system.

He decried that the ‘cap and trade’ system envisaged by governments trying to “seal the deal” at Copenhagen will be ineffective in stemming carbon emissions. Under such systems, governments set limits on overall emissions and polluters trade quotas among themselves.

He dismissed the announcements of targets for greenhouse gas emissions by nations as promises will be just promises and never be kept, noting that even Japan missed its goals under the Kyoto Protocol. Next week he publishes his first book, entitled Storms of my Grandchildren, warning that “our planet, with its remarkable array of life, is in imminent danger of crashing” and declaring, “It is our last chance”.

Dr Hansen, an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute in New York, argued that the only effective way to control global warming was to institute an increasing “carbon tax”, not “cap and trade”.

“We are going to have to move beyond fossil fuels at some point. Why continue to stretch it out longer?” he said. “The only way we can do that is by putting a price on carbon emissions. The business community and the public need to understand that there will be a gradually increasing price on carbon emissions.”

He proposes that the “carbon tax” start at the equivalent of about $1 per gallon of petrol but rise in future years. The tax revenues should be returned directly to the public in the form a dividend, he said.

He added that the world must be prepared to abandon coal unless its emissions are captured and embrace a new generation of nuclear power.

Until yesterday December 04, 2009 Prime Minister Mohan Singh was not programmed to attend the Climate Change summit. I am delighted to see the TV news in the night today December 05, 2009 which stated that Prime Minister is going to Copenhagen on December 17, 2009 to attend the final day of the summit. The U.S President Barack Obama who had slated to be there only on December 09,2009 en-route to Oslo for getting his Nobel Peace Prize on December 10,2009 has amended the itinerary and he too will be at the summit only on the last day, December 18,2009.



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