START OF COPENHAGEN SUMMIT ....Any diminution in expectations?

START OF COPENHAGEN SUMMIT
.................... Any diminution in expectations?

( Madan Menon Thottasseri)

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There were very encouraging signals in the last few days until the global summit has commenced at Copenhagen. The opening day of the climate change conference allegedly witnessed a tempering down of expectations. A new suggestion of a three-layered outcome emerged — one that would leave contentious issues of fixing ambitious emission reduction targets on developed countries for a later date.

The suggestion, made by UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer in his opening speech this morning, urged countries to fast-track action in areas in which there were greater chances of an agreement at this conference — like adaptation or technology transfer or the mechanism that seeks to compensate countries for reducing deforestation.

The countries could then agree to keep themselves engaged on the next layer, it was suggested — that of fixing the emission targets for the developed countries, and the quantum of action to be committed by developing countries like India, China or Mexico.

This process would also include setting up of a funding mechanism to finance adaptation and mitigation in developing and least developed nations.

The third part of the suggestion comprises an agreement over the long-term vision on climate change — issues like what should the global rise in temperature be limited to by 2050, or what level should global emissions be at then, so that the planet is able to avoid catastrophic change.
De Boer likened his three-layered suggestion to as a “Christmas cake” and urged the countries to start acting on their commitments from “the day this conference ends”.

“The time for formal statements is over. The time for restating of old positions is past. The time has now come to act, and to reach out to one another. We have to begin significant and immediate action the day this conference ends,” he said, addressing the opening ceremony. “Deliver. Reach for success,” he said.

It was not immediately clear how the three-layered approach had been received by the countries. A member of India’s negotiating team said most of the countries were still hopeful of a comprehensive agreement coming out of Copenhagen. A UNFCCC official said de Boer had only been articulating the most practical approach to the problem.

It cannot be construed as a slow-start of the summit. The UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer in fact had a guided tour to the subjects to be discussed in the days to come. I think that he gave a thrust for technology transfer enabling developing and underdeveloped nations to get compensated while implementing emission reductions programmes.

I want India to take a strong pitch for SOLAR ENERGY and a shift towards renewable energy sources, from fossil fuels. India can recommend for an exclusive funds for SOLAR PROJECTS which can be implemented on a war footing at all tropical countries.

At Copenhagen, there should be concerted move to plan for utilization of the SOLAR POWER in all tropical nations and sufficient funds can earmarked to such countries as per global parameters acceptable to all nations. This will facilitate countries like India to offer subsidies to industries which come forward to install SOLAR POWER PACTS. Solar can be made mandatory for giant industries, coporate, universities, hospitals etc.here afterwards, beyond a stipulated level of power consumption.

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Climate Change Summit and Conspiracies Against Developing nations

Climate Change Summit and Conspiracies Against Developing nations
(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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India’s accountability is in respect of the voluntary proposal of reduction in emission intensity is better than China. This is the affirmative comment of a U.S senator as if he is an authority of certifying for the intensity of the announcements in the midst of opposition for the same from various corners. He said “they have put the language on the table that’s actually stronger than China’s with respect to the accountability and the measuring” in an interview with the BBC News Channel. The senator is John Kerry who is also the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs.

Kerry is a key architect of the Kerry-Boxer bill in the US Congress that aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 83 per cent by 2050 and 20 per cent over the next decade from 2005 levels.
Kerry said the recent emission cut announcements made by China and India is a result of US President Barack Obama's personal talks with the leaders of these two countries. While Obama went to Beijing in November,2009 , the Indian Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh was in the US soon thereafter on the first State Visit of Barack Obama’s Presidency."If the President had not had the conversations that he had when he was in China, I don't think that he would have come to the point of making a decision to do 17 per cent reduction and I don't think China would have followed a day later with its decision," Kerry said.


India has decided to offer a reduction in carbon emission intensity by 20-25 per cent by 2020 over 2005 levels. Kerry also believes that Copenhagen will come out with a political agreement that will have mandatory reductions that people will agree to. "I believe it will come up with a prompt start to those reductions at the beginning of next year or so. It will also come up with a financing mechanism that will provide funding to some of the less-developed countries to assist them to be part of the solution wherein we can transfer technology," the Senator said. However, he noted that it won't be the final treaty language.


He opinioned that a political agreement to which each of the heads of state sign up to with a prompt beginning with transparency and verification will be acceptable for the time being, which can be much more easily translated into the treaty language over the course of the next months," he said.


Additionally if China and India and other developed countries have stepped up with mandatory reduction target that is going to help Senators and Congressmen to be able to say okay, now we're moving down a global path," he added.

Delegates were converging for the grand finale of two years of tough, sometimes bitter negotiations on a climate change treaty, as UN officials calculated that pledges offered in the last few weeks to reduce greenhouse gases put the world within reach of keeping global warming under control.

Yvo de Boer, the UN's top climate official, said Sunday on the eve of the 192-nation conference that despite unprecedented unity and concessions, industrial countries and emerging nations need to dig deeper. "Time is up," de Boer said. "Over the next two weeks governments have to deliver."

Finance - billions of dollars immediately and hundreds of billions of dollars annually within a decade - was emerging as the key to unblocking an agreement that would bind the global community to a sweeping plan to combat climate change. Nations also must need to commit to larger emission reductions, de Boer said.

South Africa on Sunday became the latest country to announce an emissions target. It said over the next 10 years it would reduce emissions by 34 percent from "business as usual," the level they would reach under ordinary circumstances. By 2025 that figure would peak at 42 percent, effectively leveling off and thereafter begin to decline. "This makes South Africa one of the stars of the negotiations," said the environmental group Greenpeace.


President Barack Obama's decision to attend the conclusion of the two-week conference, after phone consultations with other heads of state, was taken as a signal that an agreement was getting closer. He had originally planned for an hours-long stopover in the Danish capital this week en-route to his way to Oslo, where he will be receiving his Nobel Prize.

All countries together should emit no more than 44 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2020 to avoid the worst consequences of a warming world, the report said.

Computing the high end of all commitments publicly announced so far, the report said emissions will total some 46 billion tons annually in 2020. Emissions today are about 47 billion tons.US position as a radical change from the former administration under George W. Bush. A year ago "we had a position that this issue was not essential and not critical," he said, calling the shift staggering. "Think about how long it takes for a major country to fundamentally change its position, and this is a miraculously short period of rapid change," he said.
Delegates from several developing countries, however, were less optimistic, and were concerned that the major powers were cutting a deal behind the scenes that could betray the interests of poorer nations

Going by the latest draft proposal from host country Denmark, there is an attempt to instead talk of a date when emerging economies will peak their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. That is not acceptable to India, China or any developing country, many of whom have got together to table an alternate draft that envisages industrialised countries reducing their GHG emissions by at least 40 percent by 2020.

Setting the stage for two weeks of intense negotiations at the climate summit here, India, China and the rest of the Group of 77 countries have decided to reject attempts to sneak in proposals through the backdoor — something that countries like Australia and Denmark have tried to do in recent past — and urged for transparency in the process of negotiations.

The G-77 held a coordination meeting here this evening to decide their joint plan of action to ensure a fair and equitable outcome from Copenhagen.

Sources in India’s negotiating team told The Indian Express that developing nations expressed their discomfiture with certain countries trying to run a parallel track of negotiations by circulating a couple of draft proposals before the start of the summit with the aim of leading the course of talks in a particular direction. “The proposals have to come from within the negotiations. There have been attempts in the recent past to hijack the agenda of the Copenhagen summit and the developing countries are not ready to let that happen,” said an official. “Whatever proposals have to be made, let them be made through the official channel by submitting it at the CoP, followed by a thorough discussion on each one of them,” he said.
The reference was clearly to proposals from Australia and Denmark, which were circulated in the run-up to Copenhagen — both of which, in different ways, tried to dilute the basic tenets of the Kyoto Protocol and the UNFCCC by refusing to make the fundamental distinction between developing and developed countries in the climate debate.

The Australian proposal wanted every country — both developed and developing — to state what they wanted to do on the climate front and then agree to be legally bound by that commitment. This was a clever extension of the principle of NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) — introduced in the Bali Action Plan — to the rich world as well.
Under the clearly-enunciated principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, the developed countries have to take targeted cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions. The NAMAs apply only to the developing countries, and are not legally binding.

Just weeks ahead of the Copenhagen summit, Denmark informally circulated a proposal to participating countries wanting major emerging economies like India and China to set 2025 as the year when their emissions would peak. Additionally, it wanted every country, regardless of their current levels of emissions, to reduce their emissions by half by the year 2050.

Both these proposals have been rejected by India as unacceptable. The G-77 and China today agreed, and decided to oppose any such move during the negotiations.

The group also sought clarity on the mandate of the Heads of States meeting scheduled at the end of the conference, in which a galaxy of world leaders including Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President Barack Obama will participate. It wanted to know whether the Heads of States meeting would follow the track of the negotiations or would come up with its own agenda.

The group also reaffirmed its faith in the Kyoto Protocol and decided to resist any attempt to replace it with a new treaty. It has decided to let the Copenhagen conference know of its views on the opening day tomorrow on this issue.

Meanwhile, buoyed by the turn of the events in the last few days, with China, India and the US making encouraging announcements, UNFCCC executive secretary Yve do Boer said Copenhagen was already on its way to becoming the turning point in international response to climate change.

Never in 17 years of climate negotiations have so many different nations made so many firm pledges together,” de Boer told reporters on the eve of the anxiously-awaited climate change conference

Actually conspiracies started at CHOGM in the last month, even though it was an opportunity to discuss on the Climate Talks to be held at Copenhagen. Common wealth group consisting wealthy nations like U.K, Canada and Australia and also the planet’s tiny island states as well had a special summit on Climate ahead of the global summit at Copenhagen, and the Britain's Queen Elizabeth, who heads the group had said "On this, the eve of the U.N. Copenhagen summit on climate change, the Common Wealth has an opportunity to lead once more,"

In the last month, the spirit shown by Denmark in 60 th Anniversary of the Common Wealth Heads of Govt. Meetings(CHOGM), held at Port of Spain was mistook by country like India that they are only mustering nations for wider participation and attendance for Climate Talks. In fact Lokke Rasmussen(Danish P.M) did lot of ground work for being smart in connivance with countries like Australia. There were reports when Australian P.M- Kevin Rudd complimented Denmark and said “The clock is ticking to Copenhagen ... we believe that the political goodwill and resolve exists to secure a comprehensive agreement at Copenhagen”.

t is also to be noted in CHOGM , U.N Chief Ban Ki-Moon had stated that while the Climate Summit talk will not be resulting for an an instant approval of a detailed Treaty, the wording of the ‘Commonwealth Declaration”(at CHOGM) would be ‘operationally binding’( ie.tentatively as a uniform rule applicable to all commonwealth nations),and lead fast to a definite treaty.He had said then that the agreement to lay foundation for such a legally binding accord is now ‘within reach’

At CHOGM, Our P.M Man Mohan Singh had reiterated that there is no justification to club the developed nations with developing nations like India as historically industrial nations were responsible for the present crises on climate change affairs. It will not be acceptable to India to stunt the economic development or the considerably reduce the competitiveness by imposing legally binding emission reduction guidelines at par with that of the developed nations. With the idea that we should have to avoid any lowering of sights, he had said that we should not pre-empt the Copenhagen negotiating process and Whatever time is still available to us before the High Level segment meets from December 16, it should be used to achieve as much convergence as possible. However, if the consensus is that only a political document is feasible, then we must make certain that the post-Copenhagen process continues to work on the Bali mandate and the UNFCC continues to be the international template for global climate action.”

Now Australia tries to thrust certain stipulations as an extension of the NAMAS (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) — introduced in the Bali Action Plan, which is originally applicable only to rich and developed nations. Denmark being a host nation is expected to maintain more restraint and should not facilitate for underground lobbying.

It is evident that by announcing emission cutting announcements U.S, China and India have established that the three will rule the world for all good causes and jointly take the mantle wherein a global consensus is needed and steer all nations to come forward with positive participation. I wish that all other nations especially one of the rich nations, Australia will not resort to any idea of outsmarting by muddling of unified efforts and deliberations.

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Copenhagen – A Beginning for Global Consensus

Copenhagen – A Beginning for Global Consensus

(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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When India came forward to put forth a tough position and immediately became vigilant against insatiable attempts in disguise to inhibit the pace of economic development of the nation, developing nations suspect India that it will downgrade participation in Copenhagen. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been specially invited to attend the CHOGM climate change session, made an appeal to Man Mohan Singh to attend the summit. Clarifying India’s perceptions, Man Mohan Singh had said that India is willing to sign on to an ambitious global target for emission reductions or limiting temperature increase but this must be accompanied by an equitable burden sharing paradigm. Climate Change action based on the perpetuation of poverty will simply not be sustainable. Man Mohan Sing had not planned to attend the summit.

Only few days are left for the crucial Copenhagen climate talks, there was a divide between developed and developing nations while the British P.M Gorden Brown put forth a proposal at the recently held Commonwealth leaders in the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting’s (CHOGM) special session on climate change in Trinidad and Tobago to mobilize $100 billion by 2020 need for developing countries to adapt to climate change. India’s tone was set early on by the Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh.

He said . “It is unfortunate that the global discourse on climate change has become enmeshed with arguments about maintaining economic competitiveness or level-playing fields,” India is of opinion that the Climate change should not be clamped on the pretext for pursuing protectionist policies under a green label. Then it will become contrary to the UN Framework Convention (UNFC) on Climate Change and a violation of the WTO as well. India will lead a group of developing countries who share India’s stand .‘This finace is market-based and hence subject to unpredictability’. He dismissed the attempt to link climate change with arguments on maintaining economic parameters.

"Right now, there is no commitment of the magnitude that is required. ... We need close to 1 percent of global GDP, $300 billion, to address this problem," Guyana's president, Bharrat Jagdeo, who heads the economic task force of the 15-nation Caribbean Community, or Caricom, told reporters.

Developed countries in the Commonwealth led by Britain backed an initiative to establish a Copenhagen Launch Fund, starting in 2010 and building to $10 billion annually by 2012 arguing that such financing should be made available as early as next year, well before any new climate deal takes effect. The idea was backed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who also attended the Commonwealth summit as a guest. Jagdeo welcomed what he called the $10 billion offer of "interim financing."

While December first week’s U.N. talks are not expected to result in the immediate approval of a detailed climate treaty, the wording of the Commonwealth climate declaration made clear its leaders expected any deal reached in Copenhagen would be "operationally binding" and lead fast to a definitive treaty.U.N Chief Ban Ki-Moon has said an agreement to lay the foundation for such a legally binding accord is now "within reach."

The deal the United Nations is aiming for Copenhagen to offer cover for tougher emissions targets, climate financing for poorer nations and transfer of clean-energy technology. The climate treaty, expected to be adopted as a final text next year, will replace the Kyoto Protocol expiring in 2012.

Leaders of developing nations under the initiative of India, in the Commonwealth have suggested that 10 percent of the proposed $10 billion-a-year Copenhagen Launch Fund should be channeled to small island states prone to rising sea levels caused by global warming.

Nearly half of the Commonwealth's members are small island states and the group put at the forefront of the climate debate the cases of nations like the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and Tuvalu and Kiribati in the Pacific, whose existence would be threatened by swelling ocean levels.

Earlier, Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed welcomed the backing of the Commonwealth's developed countries -- Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand -- for the proposed "fast- start funding" seen as essential for any climate deal. "I believe the Commonwealth understands our predicament more than the others ... they have put concrete things on the table"

There is blooming prospects for achieving a broad political framework pact in Copenhagen next month by public promises of greenhouse gas curbs by China and the United States, the world's the world's biggest emitters.

Indian P.M reiterated that there is no justification to club the developed nations with developing nations like India as historically industrial nations were responsible for the present crises on climate change affairs. It will not be acceptable to India to stunt the economic development or the considerably reduce the competitiveness by imposing legally binding emission reduction guidelines at par with that of the developed nations.

India is cautious of measures construed to bracket developing countries like India and China as per the 2007 Bali Action Plan to implement the UNFC Convention on Climate Change. Man Mohan Singh said that the Bali Action Plan required enhanced implementation of climate change requirements like mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology. It is important that finance and technology should be made available to developing nations. Access to finance has to be concessional for developing countries and not to be dictated by market considerations.

Since U.S and China, the biggest emitters of the planet have already promised for a deal of greenhouse gas curbs, India will be put on pressure to quantify the actions that will be taken to reduce global warming. R.K.Pachauri, Chief of the Panel on Climate Change (PCC) predicted this two days back and he advocated for the importance of Prime Minister to attend the final days of the summit, at a time India’s presence and presentation will be widely acknowledged as a ‘deal maker’ and not a ‘deal breaker’. US President Barack Obama's announcement that his country would cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 17 percent by 2020, compared to 2005, and China's announcement that it would reduce the GHG-intensity of its economy by 40-45 percent by 2020, compared to 2005, and naturally put more pressure on India to come up with similar quantitative commitments.

The situation warranted India to quantify a unilateral emission cuts despite that fact that our ‘per capita’ emission is very low, thanks to our size of population! India has to prove that we are really committed to lead all developing nations without adversely affecting or compromising on its’ economic and industrial growth. Just rhetoric skills or the attitude of escapism will not help India in the issue of India’s participation in the summit of Climate Change. India is poised to surge forward in all spheres of economic development should have to gets pace and participate with the latest improvement of all righteous causes for the international community without any bias or favour.

When on Friday December 04, 2009 Just four days ahead of the Climate summit, Union Minister for Environment Jairam Ramesh announced in the Parliament that India will voluntarily reduce emission intensity by 20-25 percent by 2020, BJP blamed the UPA Govt. for making a departure from India's known stand.

Climate change was high on agenda where U.N Chief Ban Ki- Moon, French President Nicholas Sarkoyzy and Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen were also attended the 60th anniversary of the Common Wealth Heads of States(CHOGM)at Port of Spains.
Around half of Common Wealth members are island nations. Out of 53 nations, there inhibit a total of around 2 billion people, in other words around one-third of the planet’s population. The leaders of these nations met after the pledges by U,S and China to limit their greenhouse gas emissions in the midst of concerns that the Copenhagen summit could fail to agree substantial cuts.

The Commonwealth Climate Change Declaration pledged the group's backing for Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen in his efforts to secure wide attendance and commitment from world leaders at the Copenhagen climate talks.

The Copenhagen summit will help us to an opportunity to position India's long-term plan for combating global warming. Making a strong pitch for the country to shift towards renewable energy sources from fossil fuels, India must bargain at Copenhagen for large-scale resources to finance its “Solar Mission”. India being a tropical nation can consider the optimum utilization of scorching sun-light available for a period of 8 to 12 months through-out the nation at various levels, right from the peninsular tip of Kanyakumari to Northern boarder states of Rajastan and Punjab. The technology has to be made less costly prompting entrepreneurs to venture for Solar Projects at large industrial establishments, universities, Airports, Railway terminals, big hospitals, Pilgrim centres, tourist locations etc.
The Climate change threat will be real. There is drastic reduction if crop yields through-out the world, ranging from 20 – 40 percent when more and more areas of land becomes less fertile and more prone to diseases .New varieties of crops are to be developed which can get adept to extremes of weather. Otherwise the world has to encounter serious issues to feed the population. Shortage of water resources will be one of the intensive problem the world is going to face due to climate change, as commented by Kanayo F. Nwanze, President of the U.N International Fund for Agricultural Development.

There could be 200 million of climate refugees by 2050, according to a new policy paper by the International Organisation for Migration, depending on the complexity of climate displacements. Apart from the South Pacific, low-lying areas likely to be worn out first include Bangladesh and nations in the Indian Ocean, where the leader of the Maldives has begun seeking a safe heaven for his 300,000 people. Landlocked areas may also be affected; some experts call the Darfur region of Sudan, where nomads battle with villagers in a war over shrinking natural resources, the first significant conflict linked to climate change.

In the coming days, the United Nations General Assembly is expected to adopt the first resolution linking climate change to international peace and security. The hard-fought resolution, brought by 12 Pacific island states, says that climate change warrants greater attention from the United Nations as a possible source of upheaval worldwide and calls for more intense efforts to combat it. While all Pacific island states are expected to lose land, some made up entirely of atolls, like Tuvalu and Kiribati, face possible extinction.

“For the first time in history, you could actually lose countries off the face of the globe,” said Stuart Beck, the permanent representative for Palau at the United Nations. “It is a security threat to them and their populations, which will have to be relocated, which is the security threat to the places where they go, among other consequences.”

The issue has inspired intense wrangling, with some nations accusing the islanders of both exaggerating the still murky consequences of climate change and trying to expand the mandate of the Security Council by asking it to take action.

Prime Minister Mohan Singh who has not scheduled to the Climate Change summit has now decided to attend the final day of the summit. It is interesting to note that U.S President Barack Obama who had slated to be there only on December 09, 2009 en-route to Oslo for getting his Nobel Peace Prize on December 10, 2009 has amended the itinerary and he too will be at the summit only on December 18, 2009 the last day.

Arun Jaitly, the most sagacious leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, respected and liked by one and all should have restrained himself in unnecessarily slamming UPA govt. and the Union Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh who is equally respected for his vision and intelligence.

The Opposition have to delink politics from issues like India’s participation in global warming and should have come out with viable options and suggestions during all these days,right from the recently held CHOGM summit with a Special Session on Climate Change which was used to bolster a diplomatic offensive seeking wide consensus on how to fight global warming before climate talks takes place at Copenhagen, the Danish capital city. In fact this subject is being discussed by people of all walks of life, in developing countries!. The dynamic minister is to be complimented for enabling India to rise to the level of a responsible state with a concerted action plan on the issue of global warming. Of course, while presenting India’s stand in the Parliament, he remained unwavering that India that India will never agree for any legally binding emission cuts or peaking year for emissions. The Minster had unveiled a five-step action plan o achieve the reduction Plan. The measures primarily include mandatory fuel efficiency for vehicles by 2011 through legislation.

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